Hurricane Milton’s path is not evidence of weather manipulation; humans cannot create or manipulate hurricanes

In just days, Hurricane Milton has emerged from the western Gulf of Mexico to become one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded in its region. As Milton barrels towards the Tampa Bay metropolitan area, its rapid growth has spawned conspiracy theories. One such theory comes from an X post by conspiracist Stew Peters (a prolific source of anti-semitism and COVID-19-related disinformation, some of which Science Feedback has reviewed). Screenshots of Peters’ post have since circulated on Facebook, garnering hundreds of thousands of views.

Peters alleges that Milton’s path and dramatic development are evidence that the hurricane is the result of someone manipulating the weather. Peters cites a map showing four storms that formed in the western Gulf of Mexico and barreled toward Tampa Bay – three of which were in the 19th century and the fourth was 2003’s Tropical Storm Henri – to claim that Milton’s trajectory is unusual. 

But Peters misinterprets the map. The map only shows a small selection of tropical storms: those that formed in the western Gulf of Mexico, followed similar paths to Milton, and made landfall around Tampa Bay. As we show in this review, storms that form in the Gulf of Mexico and make landfall elsewhere on Florida’s Gulf coast are not uncommon, nor are storms that make landfall near Tampa Bay after forming elsewhere west of Cuba. Furthermore, despite Peters’ claims, humans do not have technology to create or control hurricanes, as we’ve demonstrated in a past review (linked here).

Hurricane Milton’s path is not unnatural

If we examine how hurricanes spawn, Gulf-of-Mexico-born storms are quite normal. According to the U.S. National Weather Service, tropical storms can form over waters that are at least 26°C (79°F). If the water is warm enough, the air above is humid enough, wind conditions are right, and a mass of low-pressure air passes by, that mass can be catalyzed into becoming a swirling tropical storm. If the storm remains under these conditions, it can intensify, with higher wind speeds. In the North Atlantic, if a tropical storm’s wind speeds surpass 119 km/h (74 mph), meteorologists classify it as a hurricane.

Most tropical storms that impact North America thus form in the warm tropical Atlantic, which fulfills all these conditions and makes a perfect hurricane incubator. But tropical storms can also form in the western Gulf of Mexico, whose waters can be just as warm. In fact, the western Gulf has already spawned two other tropical storms in 2024 so far. Hurricane Francine formed there and arced northward, making landfall in Louisiana, while the earlier and weaker Tropical Storm Chris formed in the Gulf’s southwest corner and moved west into Mexico’s Veracruz state.

Can tropical storms, then, move from the western Gulf to Florida? The map that Peters cites, made by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), only shows storms that formed in the western Gulf and made landfall in the Tampa Bay area: a tiny sliver of Florida’s sprawling Gulf coast. We don’t have to look far into the past for storm paths that began in the western Gulf and that resemble Milton’s, but landed elsewhere on Florida’s Gulf coast.

• In 2022, a storm later named Tropical Storm Alex formed over the Yucatán Peninsula, near where Milton formed. The storm then traveled northeast to cross South Florida, making landfall about 160 kilometers (100 miles) south of Tampa Bay.
• In 2019, Tropical Storm Nestor began in the western Gulf and moved northeast along a track nearly parallel to Milton’s. Nestor made landfall in the Florida Panhandle, about 320 km (200 miles) northwest of Tampa Bay. 
• In 2013, Tropical Storm Andrea formed north of the Yucatán and, likewise, moved northeast. Although the storm made landfall north of Tampa Bay, it caused heavy rainfall across the state and spawned tornadoes in Palm Beach County, to the south.

The map and Peters also exclude storms that reached Tampa Bay, but which formed in the eastern Gulf. For example, Peters does not include 2017’s Tropical Storm Emily, which spawned off Florida’s coast before making landfall across the bay from Tampa’s urban core. Nor does he include 2023’s Hurricane Idalia, which formed at the southeastern edge of the Gulf, moved northward, and caused considerable flooding in Tampa Bay as it made landfall further north.

Milton’s strength comes from warm waters, not hurricane manipulation

If Hurricane Milton is more powerful and has intensified far more rapidly than those tropical storms, it is because Milton crossed an abnormally warm Gulf of Mexico. NOAA sea-surface temperature data suggests that, over the past 30 days, the Gulf has been 1-2°C warmer than average. NOAA classified above-average water temperatures into Categories 1 through 5, ranging from ‘mild’ to ‘beyond extreme’. Milton’s route through the Gulf is experiencing a level 2 (‘strong’) marine heat wave.

The Gulf’s waters have been warm for several months now. “All summer long, different parts of the Gulf of Mexico have been in varying states of heat wave,” Brian Dzwonkowski, an oceanographer at the University of South Alabama, told the Washington Post. “Oftentimes, in the Gulf of Mexico, it’s very warm to very deep depths.”

Warm waters provide metaphorical “fuel” for tropical storms passing above. This link between above-average water temperatures and stronger hurricanes is well-known. A study of storms in the Gulf of Mexico between 1950 and 2022 determined that tropical storms and hurricanes were 50% more likely to experience a 56-kilometer-per-hour (35-mile-per-hour) or greater increase in maximum wind speed if they passed over the Gulf during a marine heat wave¹.

So, neither Hurricane Milton’s path nor its strength are evidence that Milton is a “targeted geo-engineering storm”. As Science Feedback addressed in a previous review, humans do not possess the technology to create hurricanes nor change their paths. While there have been past attempts to control hurricanes, they have all faltered in the face of a hurricane’s immense power.

As NOAA says on its website:

“For example, when hurricane Andrew struck South Florida in 1992, the eye and eyewall devastated a swath 20 miles wide. The heat energy released around the eye was 5,000 times the combined heat and electrical power generation of the Turkey Point nuclear power plant over which the eye passed.”

Conclusion

As we’ve shown, tropical storms and hurricanes that have emerged from the western Gulf of Mexico and struck Florida’s Gulf coast are not unusual. When Peters says that “only four storms in history have made a similar path”, he is cherry-picking storms that have made landfall in an extremely specific area, which only makes up a small fraction of the coast. They are not evidence that someone is shaping Milton to intentionally target Florida – not that such a thing is possible in the first place.

References:

• 1 – Radfar et al. (2024) Rapid intensification of tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico is more likely during marine heatwaves. Communications Earth & Environment.