Natural variability can not explain modern global warming, as Heartland Institute report claims
Claim:
Neither the rate nor the magnitude of the reported late twentieth century surface warming (1979–2000) lay outside normal natural variability.
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Claim:
Neither the rate nor the magnitude of the reported late twentieth century surface warming (1979–2000) lay outside normal natural variability.
Claim:
Forward projections of solar cyclicity imply the next few decades may be marked by global cooling rather than warming, despite continuing CO2 emissions.
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global warming ceased around the end of the twentieth century and was followed (since 1997) by 19 years of stable temperature
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Increases in atmospheric CO2 followed increases in temperature. Therefore, CO2 levels could not have forced temperatures to rise.
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[climate models] systematically over-estimate the sensitivity of climate to carbon dioxide ... and modelers exclude forcings and feedbacks that run counter to their mission
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Melting of Arctic sea ice and polar icecaps is not occurring at ‘unnatural’ rates and does not constitute evidence of a human impact on the climate.
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Best available data show sea-level rise is not accelerating. Local and regional sea levels continue to exhibit typical natural variability—in some places rising and in others falling.
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Solar forcings are not too small to explain twentieth century warming. In fact, their effect could be equal to or greater than the effect of CO<sub>2</sub> in the atmosphere.
Claim:
Doubling the concentration of atmospheric CO2 from its pre-industrial level, in the absence of other forcings and feedbacks, would likely cause a warming of ~0.3°C to 1.1°C