Major wine regions could disappear from global warming, Europe to be hit especially hard

As our climate continues changing, so too will some of the products at our grocery stores. One in particular is already facing challenges: wine. 

Wine grapes are particularly sensitive to climate change, and are facing threats with rising temperatures^[1]. All wine-growing regions are already affected by climate change, but impacts are unequal between regions: Europe is the most impacted region as revealed last spring by a scientific study^[2]. 

Despite this evidence, some people claim that climate change is good news for wine. Olivier Poels, deputy editor-in-chief of the journal “La revue du vin de France”, said on French TV in April 2025 : “For viticulture, it’s good news that this global warming is happening, because we have grapes that are riper […] that taste better and make better wine.” This is misleading: as we will show below, the number of regions that will face major difficulties far outnumber those that stand to benefit. 

But why care? Climate change places this cultural heritage at risk. Archaeological evidence suggests humans have produced wine for more than 8,000 years, and it is deeply rooted in cultures around the world. In fact, UNESCO has legally classified many vineyards as World Heritage Sites – protected places which are deemed to hold a ‘universal value to humanity’. 

Wine grapes are also the third most valuable horticultural crop in the world, just behind potatoes and tomatoes^[3]. In 2024, global wine export value was estimated at 35.9 billion euros. Regions around the world risk both economic and cultural losses as climate change continues impacting vineyards^[3]. 

Below, we will summarize what scientists know about how climate change will affect wine, including everything from aromas to the regions fit for growing grapes.

Wine grapes are sensitive to rising temperatures, and climate change is already impacting all wine growing regions

Why does climate change affect wine grapes? Wine grapes – especially quality ones – require very specific growing conditions: just warm and dry enough, but not excessively so. Temperate regions are the ideal ‘sweet spot’ of conditions for growing wine grapes (Figure 1)^[3].

Right now, most vineyards are located at mid-latitudes on Earth – places like California, France, South Australia and northern Italy, that are between 30° and 50° latitude (Figure 1). But Earth’s climate is changing because of rising greenhouse gases released by human activities. As a consequence, the regions that are suitable for growing wine grapes are shifting^[2,3]. 

Figure 1 – Wine growing regions across Earth are currently concentrated in mid-latitude belts of ~30-50°. Shading represents how much wine is produced in each country (darker shades mean higher production). Black dots represent key wine producing regions in each country (note that they are concentrated at mid-latitudes). Source: Science Feedback with State of the world vine and wine sector in 2024 data

As noted in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, temperature is the primary driver of vine development and recent warming trends have advanced flowering, maturity, and harvest (Figure 2)^[1]. And this is expected to continue. 

Rising temperatures affect the plant life cycle (‘phenology’) of wine grapes, which affects wine quality. Wine grapes must be picked at an ‘ideal ripeness’ for wine producers to achieve their desired wine characteristics. As explained by Bordeaux Sciences Agro:

“To produce quality wine, the grapes must reach maturity, otherwise the wine produced is low in alcohol, acidic and vegetal. But at the same time, the grapes must not reach full ripeness in very hot weather, as in this case the grapes risk being too sweet (and the wines too alcoholic), not acidic enough (the wines may lack freshness) and with an aromatic palette dominated by cooked fruit.”

Rising temperatures are already impacting harvest times in Europe, where the hottest temperatures reached during the growing season and the number of hot days (days over 35°C or 95°F) have significantly increased since human-driven climate change^[2]. 

In a 2012 paper published in EGU Climate of the Past, researchers looked at hundreds of years of global harvest dates (GHDs) across 27 regions – mostly in France – to see how they are shifting with rising temperatures. 

Some clear patterns emerged: extremely late harvest dates were concentrated in the 17th to the early 19th century, and extremely early harvest dates have been frequent since the mid-19th century^[4]. 

Scientists found that harvest times were strongly correlated with local temperatures recorded in these regions. For example, the most extreme temperatures recorded in these regions aligned with above-average to extremely-early harvests (over the last century) (Figure 3).

*Note: the z-scores are calculated values that account for what is ‘normal’ for each region (see formula in section 3.3 of page 1414 here). For example, what is a late harvest for one region, may be more normal for the next – and the same goes for temperature. So, instead, researchers turned each data point into a z-score then plotted the median – or middle – score for each year. This allowed the scientists to fairly compare data between regions to see how harvests and temperatures have changed over time. For temperature, a more negative z-score means more extreme low temperatures (and vice versa for positive z-scores). For GHD, a more negative z-score means an earlier harvest (and vice versa). 

Given the connection between temperatures and harvest dates, and clear evidence of global warming over the last century, scientists weren’t surprised with that finding. As the authors explain:

“The tendency towards earlier and earlier GHD [global harvest dates] since 1970 is in agreement with the 20th century warming trend.”^[4]

Earlier harvests have also been seen in many regions around the world^[3]. In a 2024 Nature Reviews Earth & Environment paper, scientists shared insights about this after analyzing over 250 publications from the last 20 years. The authors explain:

“In most winegrowing regions around the globe, grape harvests have advanced by 2–3 weeks over the past 40 years.”^[3]

How will climate change impact different wine regions?

Climate scientists also expect those impacts to continue or worsen in the future. In the 2024 paper referenced above, the authors explain:

“[…] About 90% of traditional wine regions in coastal and lowland regions of Spain, Italy, Greece and southern California could be at risk of disappearing by the end of the century because of excessive drought and more frequent heatwaves with climate change.”^[3]

The figures below (Figures 4-9) show that some regions will likely become more suitable for growing wine grapes (dark blue on “Future sustainability” maps), while others that are currently suitable will become less – or even entirely – unsuitable (yellow to red on same maps)^[3].

But with greater warming, the balances tip more towards losses. If we can limit global temperature rise to 2°C (3.6°F), a little over half of all vineyards should be safe (25% could benefit, and 26% could sustain themselves proper management practices)^[3]. However, beyond 2°C (3.6°F) of warming, scientists project that roughly 70% of current wine growing regions will have “substantial risk” of losing suitability^[3].

Of those that are at “substantial risk”, the authors of the 2024 paper explain:

“29% might experience too extreme climate conditions, preventing premium wine production, while the future of the remaining 41% will hinge on the effective feasibility of effective adaptation measures.”[3]

Figure 4 – Climate change impact in winegrowing suitability across Europe. The geography of wine production is changing because of climate change. While most winegrowing is currently done at mid-latitudes, some current wine regions could disappear (southern Europe) while new regions emerge (northern Europe). For better visibility, uncertainties are excluded from this figure, but can be found in the source paper. Source: adapted from van Leeuwen et al. (2024)^[3]

South America

North America

Oceania

Asia

Africa

Figures 5-9 – Click to see global warming impacts on suitability of wine-grape growing in the following regions: South America, North America, Oceania, Asia, and Africa. Source: Science Feedback with data from van Leeuwen (2024)^[3]

Climate change also impacts wine quality and flavor

Climate change also impacts wine by altering its tastes and attributes, like alcohol content, acidity, and even its aromas. The 2024 paper explains that while current wines tend to have a fresh fruit aroma, a warming climate could shift this to an overripe/cooked fruit aroma (Figure 10). 

So why do these changes occur? Warmer temperatures increase sugar accumulation and decrease acidity, and secondary metabolites are negatively affected^[1]. Secondary metabolites – several hundred of which have been identified in grapes^[5] – affect the flavors, colors, and aromas of wine.

Water deficit stress – induced by climate change in some regions – reduces shoot growth and berry size, and increases tannin and anthocyanin content (two of the ‘secondary metabolites’ in grapes). Finally, as explained by the IPCC, rising CO₂ will have mixed effects on vine growth and quality. As a consequence, wine may gain higher alcohol content and become less acidic[6,7]. Decreased acidity can make wine prone to microbiological spoilage, which can create ‘off flavors’.  

Summarizing the impacts, the IPCC explains :

“Suitability responses to warming are region-specific. In regions where low temperature is a limiting factor, warming will enable growers to grow a wider range of varieties and obtain better-quality wines. Subtropical and Mediterranean regions will experience major declines in fruit quality for high-quality wines.”^[1]

Global vineyard surface area is decreasing because of different factors, including extreme climate conditions

Vineyard surface area is decreasing globally. In fact, 2024 was the 4th consecutive year of decline, driven by vineyard removals across major vine-growing regions in both hemispheres according to International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV) (Figure 11).

Figure 11 – Vineyard area is decreasing in all major wine growing regions across the world. Source: International Organisation for Vine and Wine.

On the other hand, some new regions are already emerging. For example, Belgium started to plant vineyards in 2011, now accounting for almost 1,000 hectares (~2,470 acres). And wine is also now produced in Brittany, France. Still, as we noted, vineyard area has decreased globally despite this. 

Regarding wine production, OIV highlights :

“For the second consecutive year, extreme climatic conditions and consequent disease pressure severely impacted vineyards worldwide, leading to a historically low global wine production. […] In 2024, the total output fell to 225.8 million hectolitres – the lowest in over 60 years – down 4.8% compared to the previous year.”^[3]

But the organization also notes that the effects of extreme climate conditions were further exacerbated by economic and market pressures. In 2024, estimated global wine consumption decreased by 3.3% compared to 2023 – if that estimate is correct, it marks the lowest consumption since 1961. In 2023 and 2024, wine trade was negatively affected by decreased demand and high average export prices. 

Indeed, climate change is not the sole factor in wine production. 

Wine production may become economically unviable in certain regions due to climate change, despite adaptation measures

Wine grape growers may be able to adapt to certain amounts of warming, but some regions may become economically unfeasible for producers in the future. As explained in the 2024 paper referenced earlier:

“Existing producers can adapt to a certain level of warming by changing plant material (varieties and rootstocks), training systems and vineyard management. However, these adaptations might not be enough to maintain economically viable wine production in all areas. Future research should aim to assess the economic impact of climate change adaptation strategies applied at large scale.”^[3]

As we noted earlier, 70% of wine growing regions will be at “substantial risk” from climate change if we pass 2°C of warming. So, while select regions may benefit, more will suffer from the pressures of climate change, and will be forced to adapt their practices with no guarantee of success. 

References

• 1 – IPCC (2021) Sixth Assessment Report.
• 2 – Wolkovich et al. (2025) Uneven impacts of climate change around the world and across the annual cycle of winegrapes. PLOS Climate.
• 3 – van Leeuwen et al. (2024) Climate change impacts and adaptations of wine production. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment.
• 4 – Daux et al. (2012) An open-access database of grape harvest dates for climate research: data description and quality assessment. EGU Climate of the Past.
• 5 – Rienth et al. (2021) Grape Berry Secondary Metabolites and Their Modulation by Abiotic Factors in a Climate Change Scenario–A Review. Frontiers in Plant Science.
• 6 – Mira de Orduña (2010) Climate change associated effects on grape and wine quality and production. Food Research International.
• 7 – van Leeuwen et al. (2019) An update on the impact of climate change in viticulture and potential adaptations. Agronomy.