HAARP cannot produce the colorful auroras seen around the world; their power pales to geomagnetic storms

On 8 October 2024, a spot on the sun erupted, throwing a large mass of magnetized plasma – called a coronal mass ejection – which sped towards Earth over the course of a day. Upon arrival, the ejected material caused a geomagnetic storm from 9-12 October 2024, displaying a vivid array of colors, called auroras, which were witnessed in skies around the globe. 

Although this event did not coincide with any experiments by the High-frequency Active Auroral Research Program (HAARP), social media users still blamed them for these effects on 11 October 2024. But this is not the first time HAARP has received unwarranted accusations; following the geomagnetic storm in May 2024, we reviewed similar claims which we found to be incorrect  (linked here). 

At the date of this review, a Facebook video posted on 11 October 2024 has gathered over 767,000 views after claiming HAARP caused the recent auroras observed around the world. We will investigate this claim below and explore the scientific evidence for what causes auroras.

Colorful auroras appeared across the globe from 9-12 October 2024 due to a solar storm that scientists warned about

Although the recent auroras were exceptionally wide spread and a surprise to most who saw them, their presence was not a mystery to scientists. Scientists have long known that certain types of solar activity lead to aurora effects in Earth’s atmosphere. The most well-known example of this phenomenon is the aurora borealis (i.e., the northern lights), which have been documented for centuries – long before the establishment of HAARP in 1990. 

Auroras are caused by the interactions between solar winds and Earth’s magnetic field (i.e., magnetosphere) that protects our planet, as shown in Figure 1 below. These solar winds contain a plasma of electrically charged particles which interact with Earth’s magnetic field, accelerating electrons along its magnetic field lines (blue lines in Figure 1) which then bombard and energize molecules in Earth’s atmosphere causing them to glow and form auroras.

The northern lights are a more regular occurrence in the auroral oval due to the interactions described above and geometry shown in Figure 2 below; however, the Sun occasionally undergoes increased activity (e.g., solar storms) which leads to greater visibility of auroras from other places on Earth, as witnessed from 9-12 October 2024.   

On 9 October 2024, the National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued a Severe (G4) Geomagnetic Storm Watch due to a solar flares and coronal mass ejection (CME) that erupted the day prior, as shown in Figures 3 and 4.

After barreling into Earth’s magnetic field at  2.4 million kilometers per hour (1.5 million miles per hour), the coronal mass ejection from this solar flare (visuals from NASA linked here) resulted in an aurora that could be seen from lower-latitude areas on Earth where it is normally not possible. On 12 October 2024 NOAA explained that with clear skies auroras could be seen as far south as Alabama and Northern California. 

Some may be thinking ‘we just had a big geomagnetic storm in May 2024, why are we having another one? Is that unusual?’. Not at all – it was actually expected. As NOAA explains: 

“The solar cycle is a nearly periodic change in the Sun’s activity between the time where we can observe the most and least number of sunspots, and generally lasts around 11 years. Sometimes the surface of the Sun is very active with lots of sunspots, while other times it is quieter with only a few or even none.”

A 2018 paper in Nature Communication details that “The 11-year cycle of sunspots spawn severe space weather characterized by solar flares, coronal mass ejections, geomagnetic storms, enhanced radiative, and energetic particle flux endangering satellites, global communication systems, air-traffic over polar routes, and electric power grids”^[1]

That paper also explains that sunspots have been observed for over four centuries^[1]. And in 2019, the Solar Spot Prediction Panel – consisting of NOAA, NASA and the International Space Environmental Services (ISES) – convened to produce a forecast of the current solar cycle – Solar Cycle 25. The result – shown in Figure 5 – plots the observed and predicted sunspots of the current cycle, showing a clear rise in the number of sunspots (i.e., regions from which magnetic energy can build up and release, producing solar flares). This plot demonstrates the steady rise in sunspot activity that is expected to continue and peak between November 2024 and March 2026.

This evidence clearly supports that the 8 October 2024 solar flare and coronal mass ejection were responsible for the auroras witnessed around the world from 9-12 October 2024.

HAARP cannot produce the colorful displays seen in the sky during natural auroras – they simply lack the required energy output

Based on HAARP’s research schedule – which is publicly available (linked here) – HAARP was not operating during or even leading up to the recent solar storm and associated auroras from 9-12 October 2024. But more importantly, they do not have the capability to produce auroras seen across the globe, as explained in their FAQ and further detailed below.

So what is it that HAARP does? HAARP is a research facility operated by the University of Alaska Fairbanks^[2]. It transmits high-frequency radio signals into the upper parts of the atmosphere – called the ionosphere – using 360 radio transmitters and 180 antennas. The facility covers about 14 hectares (0.14 kilometers squared) near the town of Gakona, Alaska, which is about 250 kilometers northeast of Anchorage, Alaska’s largest city. The radio signals are partially absorbed between 100 kilometers and 350 kilometers in altitude, accelerating electrons in the ionosphere and briefly “heating” it up^[3]. By analyzing how radio waves interact with electrons in the ionosphere^[4,5], researchers at HAARP are able to study phenomena such as the effects of the aurora borealis (i.e., northern lights) on radio systems and aircraft communications at high altitudes.

However, these experiments are short-lived, with visual phenomena lasting seconds, and total effects – again, only in a small patch of the sky – lasting up to 10 minutes, according to HAARP’s FAQ. In response to a frequently asked question about whether or not the effects of their experiments are long-lasting, HAARP writes:

“No. Since the ionosphere is inherently a turbulent medium that is being both stirred up and renewed by the sun, artificially induced effects are quickly obliterated. Depending on the height within the ionosphere where the effect is originally produced, these effects are no longer detectable after times ranging from less than a second to 10 minutes.”

Despite the short-lived, temporary nature of these experiments in the ionosphere, some have claimed that HAARP’s experiments can ‘punch holes in the ozone layer, potentially letting in more harmful radiation’. However, these claims are unfounded because the ozone layer is in Earth’s stratosphere and as HAARP explains:

“Radio waves in the frequency ranges that HAARP transmits are not absorbed in either the troposphere or the stratosphere—the two levels of the atmosphere that produce Earth’s weather.”

Regarding visual effects, HAARP instruments are incapable of producing the auroras people observe during geomagnetic storms. The maximum radiative power of HAARP’s antennas is 3.6 megawatts^[3], whereas a strong geomagnetic storm inputs upwards of 100 gigawatts of power into Earth’s magnetosphere and ionosphere (i.e., the region studied by HAARP). This means that the power received from strong geomagnetic storms is several thousand to 10,000 times greater than HAARP’s maximum power output. In a similar explanation from HAARP, they note: 

“interestingly, coronal mass ejections, like the one associated with the recent geomagnetic storm, typically release more than 10^24 Joules of energy. By comparison, the high- frequency (HF) transmitter at HAARP is only a ~3 megawatt (MW) transmitter; it would take HAARP over 10 billion years to produce enough energy to affect this naturally occurring phenomenon”. 

But more importantly: there is a variety of freely accessible evidence showing that strong solar storms precede widely visible aurora events. This evidence includes data and satellite imagery accessible through NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center and NASA’s Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (linked here and here). 

CONCLUSION

In summary, there is clear evidence that the auroras observed around the globe from 9-12 October 2024 were caused by a solar storm that began erupting from the Sun on 8 October 2024. The claims attributing these auroras – or any other visible auroras – to HAARP are simply incorrect based on current evidence. As explained above, not only is HAARP incapable of producing the visual displays seen during aurora events due to power-output limitations, but there is also clear evidence that auroras are a natural phenomenon caused by solar flares and coronal mass ejections from the sun. There is freely available evidence of these solar flares through data and satellite imagery accessible through NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center and NASA’s Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (linked here and here). 

REFERENCES

• 1 – Bhowmik and Nandy (2018). Prediction of the strength and timing of sunspot cycle 25 reveal decadal-scale space environmental conditions. Nature Communications. 
• 2 – McCoy et al. (2018) Haarp, a Powerful Active Ionospheric Laboratory Open for International Research. 42nd COSPAR Scientific Assembly. 14-22 July 2018, Pasadena, California, USA
• 3 – Todd Pedersen (2015) HAARP, the most powerful ionosphere heater on Earth. Physics Today.
• 4– Inan et al. (2004) Multi‐hop whistler‐mode ELF/VLF signals and triggered emissions excited by the HAARP HF heater. Geophysical Research Letters.
• 5 – Piddyachiy et al. (2011) DEMETER observations of the ionospheric trough over HAARP in relation to HF heating experiments. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics.